Posts Tagged ‘cause and effect’

Human Metrics

Monday, July 6th, 2009

Six Sigma teaches us to view everything as a process. We should take an objective look at the system, measure the values, form a model, enact changes on the process, and observe the effects of these changes. However, we sometimes want to measure objectively something that is intrinsically subjective, the opinions of people. These fall under the category of what I like to call “Human Metrics.” Some common examples of these metrics are customer satisfaction, perception of quality, and ease of use. How do we accurately measure these values?

Surveys are regularly used as the catchall for human metrics. This has several flaws, though. First, people are not consistent graders, and a 7/10 for one person may be an 8/10 for another. Ultimately, though, this is not a problem because it represents the same sort of variation you will see in any measurement. The second problem is self-selection of responders. This is well documented, and can create extreme disparities between real and actual numbers. A good example of this can be found with call-in surveys. In many cases, only those with a chip on their shoulder will be compelled to call, creating a clearly biased sample. To counter this, sometimes incentives are offered to get a higher response rate, but this brings us to the third problem with surveys, non-response. Where some people may choose to simply not respond to a survey, others will purposely subvert the survey itself by ignoring the questions and answering in some sort of pattern. This is common with incentives, like contests for surveys, because it is so easy to simply hit the number one repeatedly without hearing the questions being asked. It can be hard to pick out this group, and one can only hope that over the long term the collective contributions of these unresponders will balance each other out.

How do you deal with these problems? A common solution is to try to address and eliminate the issues inherent to surveys. Select the sample by hand, normalize the scores across respondents, and remove surveys with obvious patterns or very unusual scoring habits. Ultimately though, even if these methods were perfect at eliminating their respective flaws, you would still be left with the fact that people are bad judges of their own opinions. Thus, you cannot use the responses to predict future behavior. This brings us to the best method for retrieving human metrics, using a proxy.

Measurement by proxy is a method that has existed for millennia. If you know the angle of the sun, you can measure the height of a flagpole by measuring the length of its shadow. You can apply this to human metrics and find values from behaviors that reflect certain opinions. Often, these are the values you care about most. Repeat sales, for example, is a good measurement of customer satisfaction. However, while repeat sales a metric that you can find using existing data, some require testing. For example, if you want a metric for ease of use, then you can look at the time taken to use the product. To test this, one might take a group of people with little or no familiarity with a product and ask them to use it. The time taken does not exactly demonstrate ease of use, but the two are related enough to make this a reasonable proxy in certain situations.

That is not to say that surveys cannot be useful, or don’t have a place. Simply put, they are very easy to implement, and consistent surveys allow the tracking of trends in user opinions. Additionally, measurement by proxy is far from perfect. Other factors in your system can seep into your measurement and taint the values. For example, the number of repeat sales may be artificially increased by having a product with a short lifespan. Naturally, the short lifespan is bad for customer satisfaction, but the proxy would insist otherwise.

In conclusion, as a Six Sigma expert, you should look to be quantitative in your assessment of systems. Human metrics are no exception to this rule. You cannot abandon the Six Sigma philosophy just because “Everyone is different.” Instead, look to measure how they are different.

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Six Sigma Project Guidelines in Plain English

Thursday, April 30th, 2009

Define the project

In this phase you will select a good project and describe it in detail. A good project is one that will have an impact on something important to the organization, requires the Six Sigma skill set, and has a good chance of succeeding. To determine this you need to link your project to the goals of your leadership; make sure the project isn’t too large to be manageable or too small to be meaningful; is authorized by an appropriate sponsor; and is well planned. You will form a team to work with you. (From this point on whenever the word “you” is used, it refers to your team.) To describe your project you will draw a picture of the process your project will address, identify the customers for your project and determine what they want from the project, and qualitatively determine what will drive the project’s results.
Validate the measurement system and get the baseline

In this phase you will make sure that you can measure the process and the project outcomes. You will operationally define the drivers by identifying how to measure them and you will gather data to determine the process baseline. The baseline is how the key project outcome metrics and drivers have performed in the past and are performing now. You will link the driver data to the outcomes to help you determine which drivers are likely to be the most important (this is called stratifying the data.) You will look at how well other organizations do on your project outcome measures and you will use this information to set goals for the outcomes.

Identify key levers (Xs) that drive outcomes

You will sharpen your focus by drawing a detailed picture of the process. Using the map and the information from the previous phase you will think about what causes the outcomes and the drivers to vary. You will convert your ideas into hypotheses that can be tested scientifically. You will collect data and analyze the data to test your hypotheses and to create mathematical models of cause and effect. You will use the models to determine which drivers need to change to achieve your goals for the outcomes. You will analyze the cost of changing the drivers.

Determine improvement strategy

Using the cost analysis and performance the models you will set goals for the drivers. You will come up with creative ways to achieve these goals and create plans for implementing these changes. You will look at how the plans could fail and take action to reduce the risk of failure. You will try your plan on a small scale to test your plan. For the risks that can’t be eliminated, you will develop contingency plans.

Make permanent improvements

You will create standard operating procedures for the new process and you will work with the process owner to implement the changes. You will create a set of measurements that the new owner will use to monitor the new process. You will hand the process over to the owner. Periodically you will check back with the owner to provide assistance and to confirm that the project’s goals continue to be met.

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Modeling with Regression

Monday, April 6th, 2009

July 1, 2008

One important Black Belt activity is to use the organization’s data warehouse to explore cause and effect relationships by building models using multiple linear regression. This isn’t as easy as just throwing all of the candidate Xs into a software package and crunching away. This podcast describes the technique Tom teaches in Six Sigma Black Belt training. 5:32.

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What is Six Sigma?

By Thomas Pyzdek, Author of The Six Sigma Handbook

For Motorola, the originator of Six Sigma, the answer to the question "Why Six Sigma?" was simple: survival. Motorola came to Six Sigma because it was being consistently beaten in the competitive marketplace by foreign firms that were able to produce higher quality products at a lower cost. When a Japanese firm took over a Motorola factory that manufactured Quasar television sets in the United States in the 1970s, they promptly set about making drastic changes in the way the factory operated. Under Japanese management, the factory was soon producing TV sets with 1/20th the number of defects they had produced under Motorola management. They did this using the same workforce, technology, and designs, making it clear that the problem was Motorola's management. Eventually, even Motorola's own executives had to admit "our quality stinks." Read More...